BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Donald Cerrone vs.
Rick Story

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

23-14-0 (1 NC) Donald Cerrone · UFC
12-7-0 Rick Story · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

23-14-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
12-7-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
43
AgeΔ 2 yrs
41
6'1"
HeightΔ 4"
5'9"
73"
ReachΔ 2"
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
49.1
Layoff (months)Δ 70.4 mo
119.5
LLNCLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Donald Cerrone carries real power — 0.84 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Rick Story hunts takedowns — 2.53 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Rick Story is a submission threat — 0.89 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Donald Cerrone

Full career not yet synced for Donald Cerrone — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 20-13 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.8 wins over .500

Rick Story

Full career not yet synced for Rick Story — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 8-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.8 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

17484.90/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
9013.80/min · norm 3.17
18255.11/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
5152.17/min · norm 3.06
47.4%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
41.8%norm 44.9%
51.6%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
62.5%norm 55.25%
200.84/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
60.38/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Donald Cerrone

Distance 89.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.7% (norm 8.0%)

Rick Story

Distance 74.4% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 14.5% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 11.1% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Donald Cerrone

Head 71.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 16.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.8% (norm 7.9%)

Rick Story

Head 73.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 20.0% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 6.5% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Cerrone L/AAccLightweight med Story L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1478 / 3290 44.9% 37.9% 548 / 1606 34.1% 38.6%
In the clinch 151 / 229 65.9% 67.3% 201 / 312 64.4% 67.8%
On the ground 119 / 172 69.2% 69.1% 152 / 240 63.3% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 893 / 2630 34.0% 35.0% 465 / 1586 29.3% 37.2%
To the body 442 / 589 75.0% 69.1% 312 / 432 72.2% 70.7%
To the legs 413 / 472 87.5% 81.9% 124 / 140 88.6% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Cerrone L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Story L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1558 / 3375 46.2% 38.9% 395 / 1173 33.7% 39.0%
In the clinch 211 / 305 69.2% 68.6% 94 / 165 57.0% 68.9%
On the ground 56 / 88 63.6% 68.0% 26 / 36 72.2% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 1069 / 2721 39.3% 35.1% 336 / 1118 30.1% 35.6%
To the body 444 / 668 66.5% 68.1% 108 / 168 64.3% 69.6%
To the legs 312 / 379 82.3% 81.5% 71 / 88 80.7% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2428.9% acc · 1.01/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
4048.2% acc · 2.53/15 · norm 1.27
6288.6% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
4863.2% def · norm 63.9%
38:3610.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
74:5431.6% of cage time · norm 18.5%
19:550:50 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
39:212:29 per 15 · norm 3:15
110.46/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
140.89/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Cerrone has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.