BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Donald Cerrone vs.
Alex Oliveira

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

23-14-0 (1 NC) Donald Cerrone · UFC
11-10-0 (1 NC) Alex Oliveira · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

23-14-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
11-10-0 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
43.4
AgeΔ 4.9 yrs
38.5
6'1"
HeightΔ 2"
5'11"
73"
ReachΔ 3"
76"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
49.1
Layoff (months)Δ 4 mo
53.1
LLNCLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Donald Cerrone carries real power — 0.84 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Alex Oliveira hunts takedowns — 2.35 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Alex Oliveira owns the mat — in control 33% of cage time, vs a 18% Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Donald Cerrone

Full career not yet synced for Donald Cerrone — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 20-13 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.8 wins over .500

Alex Oliveira

Full career not yet synced for Alex Oliveira — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 5-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.7 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

17484.90/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
6292.99/min · norm 3.17
18255.11/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
5372.55/min · norm 3.06
47.4%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
51.1%norm 44.9%
51.6%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
46.7%norm 55.25%
200.84/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
60.43/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Donald Cerrone

Distance 89.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.7% (norm 8.0%)

Alex Oliveira

Distance 69.7% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 17.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 13.3% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Donald Cerrone

Head 71.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 16.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.8% (norm 7.9%)

Alex Oliveira

Head 71.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 17.7% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 10.4% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Cerrone L/AAccLightweight med Oliveira L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1478 / 3290 44.9% 37.9% 374 / 857 43.6% 38.6%
In the clinch 151 / 229 65.9% 67.3% 142 / 209 67.9% 67.8%
On the ground 119 / 172 69.2% 69.1% 113 / 164 68.9% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 893 / 2630 34.0% 35.0% 356 / 884 40.3% 37.2%
To the body 442 / 589 75.0% 69.1% 158 / 218 72.5% 70.7%
To the legs 413 / 472 87.5% 81.9% 115 / 128 89.8% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Cerrone L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Oliveira L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1558 / 3375 46.2% 38.9% 303 / 704 43.0% 39.0%
In the clinch 211 / 305 69.2% 68.6% 108 / 141 76.6% 68.9%
On the ground 56 / 88 63.6% 68.0% 126 / 162 77.8% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 1069 / 2721 39.3% 35.1% 328 / 737 44.5% 35.6%
To the body 444 / 668 66.5% 68.1% 90 / 135 66.7% 69.6%
To the legs 312 / 379 82.3% 81.5% 119 / 135 88.1% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2428.9% acc · 1.01/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
3338.4% acc · 2.35/15 · norm 1.27
6288.6% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
3063.8% def · norm 63.9%
38:3610.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
69:2733.0% of cage time · norm 18.5%
19:550:50 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
52:553:46 per 15 · norm 3:15
110.46/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
80.57/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Cerrone has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.