BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Cub Swanson vs.
Renato Moicano

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

16-10-0 Cub Swanson · UFC
13-7-0 Renato Moicano · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

16-10-0
UFC record
13-7-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
42.8
AgeΔ 5.6 yrs
37.2
5'8"
HeightΔ 3"
5'11"
70"
ReachΔ 2"
72"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
3.8
Layoff (months)Δ 0.3 mo
4.1
WWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Cub Swanson carries real power — 0.58 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Featherweight norm.
Cub Swanson outworks the Featherweight division — 5.30 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.54 norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Cub Swanson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1610
Tier 3 — regional circuit 154

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.93 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 19 finish wins over 45 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Renato Moicano

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 137
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.29 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

16455.30/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes landed
7714.10/min · norm 3.42
13804.44/min · norm 3.47
Sig. strikes absorbed
6683.55/min · norm 3.37
52.6%norm 45.0%
Striking accuracy
49.2%norm 43.5%
58.5%norm 54.85%
Striking defense
59.7%norm 56.3%
120.58/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
20.16/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Cub Swanson

Distance 88.3% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 5.3% (norm 6.5%)

Renato Moicano

Distance 88.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 2.1% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 9.9% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Cub Swanson

Head 72.9% (norm 77.4%) · Body 13.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 13.3% (norm 7.8%)

Renato Moicano

Head 82.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.0% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Swanson L/AAccFeatherweight med Moicano L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1363 / 2764 49.3% 40.9% 636 / 1379 46.1% 37.9%
In the clinch 160 / 199 80.4% 70.8% 25 / 33 75.8% 67.3%
On the ground 122 / 166 73.5% 69.2% 110 / 155 71.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 992 / 2281 43.5% 37.2% 563 / 1296 43.4% 35.0%
To the body 323 / 432 74.8% 68.2% 75 / 114 65.8% 69.1%
To the legs 330 / 416 79.3% 80.7% 133 / 157 84.7% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 126 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Swanson L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Moicano L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1129 / 2932 38.5% 39.2% 556 / 1502 37.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 127 / 193 65.8% 70.3% 27 / 36 75.0% 68.6%
On the ground 124 / 204 60.8% 69.4% 85 / 119 71.4% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 885 / 2628 33.7% 35.9% 419 / 1331 31.5% 35.1%
To the body 247 / 370 66.8% 67.9% 123 / 176 69.9% 68.1%
To the legs 248 / 331 74.9% 81.5% 126 / 150 84.0% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1451.9% acc · 0.68/15 · norm 1.19
Takedowns landed
2140.4% acc · 1.68/15 · norm 1.38
8272.6% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2764.3% def · norm 64.0%
22:527.4% of cage time · norm 16.7%
Control time
41:1121.9% of cage time · norm 19.5%
58:402:50 per 15 · norm 3:12
Time under control
24:421:58 per 15 · norm 2:46
20.10/15 · norm 0.46
Submission attempts
70.56/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Swanson has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.