BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Conor McGregor vs.
Eddie Alvarez

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

10-5-0 Conor McGregor · UFC
4-3-0 (1 NC) Eddie Alvarez · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

10-5-0
UFC record
4-3-0 (1 NC)
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
38.1
AgeΔ 4.5 yrs
42.6
5'9"
HeightΔ 0"
5'9"
74"
ReachΔ 5"
69"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
0.9
Layoff (months)Δ 95.4 mo
96.3
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWNCLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Conor McGregor carries real power — 1.72 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Featherweight norm.
Eddie Alvarez absorbs 5.33 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.37 Lightweight norm — hittable.
Conor McGregor outworks the Featherweight division — 5.27 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.54 norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Conor McGregor

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 105
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 41
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.31 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 20 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +7.1 wins over .500

Eddie Alvarez

Full career not yet synced for Eddie Alvarez — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 3-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.9 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

5995.27/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes landed
4004.50/min · norm 3.42
5364.71/min · norm 3.47
Sig. strikes absorbed
4745.33/min · norm 3.37
49.5%norm 45.0%
Striking accuracy
41.2%norm 43.5%
53.9%norm 54.85%
Striking defense
53.8%norm 56.3%
131.72/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
10.17/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Conor McGregor

Distance 84.5% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 9.3% (norm 6.5%)

Eddie Alvarez

Distance 87.3% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 10.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 2.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Conor McGregor

Head 78.8% (norm 77.4%) · Body 13.1% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 8.2% (norm 7.8%)

Eddie Alvarez

Head 80.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.2% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.8% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone McGregor L/AAccFeatherweight med Alvarez L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 461 / 1022 45.1% 40.9% 313 / 847 37.0% 37.9%
In the clinch 61 / 75 81.3% 70.8% 71 / 104 68.3% 67.3%
On the ground 77 / 113 68.1% 69.2% 16 / 19 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 419 / 953 44.0% 37.2% 263 / 776 33.9% 35.0%
To the body 102 / 158 64.6% 68.2% 101 / 147 68.7% 69.1%
To the legs 78 / 99 78.8% 80.7% 36 / 47 76.6% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 126 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs McGregor L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Alvarez L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 336 / 864 38.9% 39.2% 399 / 910 43.8% 38.9%
In the clinch 96 / 142 67.6% 70.3% 63 / 89 70.8% 68.6%
On the ground 104 / 156 66.7% 69.4% 12 / 26 46.2% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 372 / 913 40.7% 35.9% 307 / 820 37.4% 35.1%
To the body 88 / 136 64.7% 67.9% 81 / 112 72.3% 68.1%
To the legs 76 / 113 67.3% 81.5% 86 / 93 92.5% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

555.6% acc · 0.66/15 · norm 1.19
Takedowns landed
1226.1% acc · 2.02/15 · norm 1.38
2266.7% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
5100.0% def · norm 64.0%
13:5112.2% of cage time · norm 16.7%
Control time
17:2219.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
31:344:09 per 15 · norm 3:12
Time under control
3:240:34 per 15 · norm 2:46
10.13/15 · norm 0.46
Submission attempts
10.17/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — McGregor has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.