Colby Covington vs.
Warlley Alves
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Colby Covington
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 12 | 5 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 5 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.42 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 22 documented bouts
In the UFC: 9-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.7 wins over .500
Warlley Alves
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 8 | 8 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 6 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.02 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 22 documented bouts
In the UFC: 5-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Colby Covington
Distance 88.7% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 5.6% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.7% (norm 8.1%)
Warlley Alves
Distance 85.3% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 9.6% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.1% (norm 8.1%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Colby Covington
Head 83.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.3% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 6.8% (norm 8.4%)
Warlley Alves
Head 70.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.6% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 13.6% (norm 8.4%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Covington L/A | Acc | Welterweight med | Alves L/A | Acc | Welterweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 876 / 2533 | 34.6% | 38.6% | 379 / 861 | 44.0% | 38.6% |
| In the clinch | 107 / 159 | 67.3% | 67.8% | 71 / 97 | 73.2% | 67.8% |
| On the ground | 116 / 164 | 70.7% | 67.2% | 35 / 51 | 68.6% | 67.2% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 763 / 2396 | 31.8% | 37.2% | 268 / 715 | 37.5% | 37.2% |
| To the body | 174 / 265 | 65.7% | 70.7% | 111 / 157 | 70.7% | 70.7% |
| To the legs | 162 / 195 | 83.1% | 82.9% | 106 / 137 | 77.4% | 82.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Covington L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med | vs Alves L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 740 / 1790 | 41.3% | 39.0% | 466 / 1046 | 44.6% | 39.0% |
| In the clinch | 95 / 112 | 84.8% | 68.9% | 128 / 168 | 76.2% | 68.9% |
| On the ground | 55 / 66 | 83.3% | 68.0% | 35 / 62 | 56.5% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 578 / 1561 | 37.0% | 35.6% | 423 / 995 | 42.5% | 35.6% |
| To the body | 209 / 290 | 72.1% | 69.6% | 150 / 210 | 71.4% | 69.6% |
| To the legs | 103 / 117 | 88.0% | 82.1% | 56 / 71 | 78.9% | 82.1% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Covington has more cage time on record.