BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Clay Guida vs.
Shannon Gugerty

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

18-19-0 Clay Guida · UFC
2-3-0 Shannon Gugerty · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

18-19-0
UFC record
2-3-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
44.7
AgeΔ 0.1 yrs
44.6
5'7"
HeightΔ 3"
5'10"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
19.9
Layoff (months)Δ 176.6 mo
196.5
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Shannon Gugerty is a submission threat — 3.41 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Clay Guida hunts takedowns — 2.76 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Clay Guida owns the mat — in control 37% of cage time, vs a 20% Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Clay Guida

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1819
Tier 3 — regional circuit 195

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.66 · 18 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 61 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-16 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.3 wins over .500

Shannon Gugerty

Full career not yet synced for Shannon Gugerty — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11562.73/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
441.25/min · norm 3.42
13443.18/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
661.88/min · norm 3.37
33.2%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
39.3%norm 43.5%
60.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
58.2%norm 56.3%
60.21/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Clay Guida

Distance 82.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 11.5% (norm 8.0%)

Shannon Gugerty

Distance 77.7% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 14.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 8.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Clay Guida

Head 82.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.0% (norm 7.9%)

Shannon Gugerty

Head 62.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.2% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 22.3% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Guida L/AAccLightweight med Gugerty L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 753 / 2862 26.3% 37.9% 28 / 87 32.2% 37.9%
In the clinch 158 / 223 70.9% 67.3% 10 / 16 too few to rate 67.3%
On the ground 245 / 401 61.1% 69.1% 6 / 9 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 691 / 2881 24.0% 35.0% 14 / 70 20.0% 35.0%
To the body 186 / 291 63.9% 69.1% 11 / 17 too few to rate 69.1%
To the legs 279 / 314 88.9% 81.9% 19 / 25 76.0% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Guida L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Gugerty L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1018 / 3003 33.9% 38.9% 28 / 104 26.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 208 / 287 72.5% 68.6% 24 / 32 75.0% 68.6%
On the ground 118 / 147 80.3% 68.0% 14 / 22 too few to rate 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 1031 / 3003 34.3% 35.1% 27 / 107 25.2% 35.1%
To the body 211 / 309 68.3% 68.1% 13 / 19 too few to rate 68.1%
To the legs 102 / 125 81.6% 81.5% 26 / 32 81.2% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

7833.6% acc · 2.76/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
527.8% acc · 2.13/15 · norm 1.38
5069.4% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
250.0% def · norm 64.0%
156:2737.0% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
11:3533.0% of cage time · norm 19.5%
38:511:22 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
11:294:54 per 15 · norm 2:46
160.57/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
83.41/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Guida has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.