Clay Guida vs.
Rafa Garcia
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Clay Guida
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 18 | 19 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 19 | 5 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.66 · 18 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 61 documented bouts
In the UFC: 10-16 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.3 wins over .500
Rafa Garcia
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 7 | 4 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 11 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.29 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 22 documented bouts
In the UFC: 5-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Clay Guida
Distance 82.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 11.5% (norm 8.0%)
Rafa Garcia
Distance 90.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 5.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.9% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Clay Guida
Head 82.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.0% (norm 7.9%)
Rafa Garcia
Head 87.8% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.4% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Guida L/A | Acc | Lightweight med | Garcia L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 753 / 2862 | 26.3% | 37.9% | 542 / 1307 | 41.5% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 158 / 223 | 70.9% | 67.3% | 61 / 76 | 80.3% | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 245 / 401 | 61.1% | 69.1% | 34 / 56 | 60.7% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 691 / 2881 | 24.0% | 35.0% | 503 / 1264 | 39.8% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 186 / 291 | 63.9% | 69.1% | 80 / 112 | 71.4% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 279 / 314 | 88.9% | 81.9% | 54 / 63 | 85.7% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Guida L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med | vs Garcia L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 1018 / 3003 | 33.9% | 38.9% | 557 / 1563 | 35.6% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 208 / 287 | 72.5% | 68.6% | 55 / 68 | 80.9% | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 118 / 147 | 80.3% | 68.0% | 46 / 75 | 61.3% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 1031 / 3003 | 34.3% | 35.1% | 408 / 1360 | 30.0% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 211 / 309 | 68.3% | 68.1% | 181 / 262 | 69.1% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 102 / 125 | 81.6% | 81.5% | 69 / 84 | 82.1% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Guida has more cage time on record.