BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Charles Oliveira vs.
Ilia Topuria

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

25-11-0 (1 NC) Charles Oliveira · UFC
9-1-0 Ilia Topuria · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

25-11-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
9-1-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
36.8
AgeΔ 7.3 yrs
29.5
5'10"
HeightΔ 3"
5'7"
74"
ReachΔ 5"
69"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5
Layoff (months)Δ 3.3 mo
1.7
WWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Charles Oliveira is a submission threat — 2.59 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Ilia Topuria carries real power — 1.15 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Featherweight norm.
Ilia Topuria is a submission threat — 0.86 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.46 Featherweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Charles Oliveira

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 2511
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.52 · 25 tier-1/2 wins · 28 finish wins over 45 documented bouts

In the UFC: 19-11 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.4 wins over .500

Ilia Topuria

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 91
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 20
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 2.06 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 18 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +6.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

9543.23/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
5024.82/min · norm 3.54
9003.05/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
4143.97/min · norm 3.47
55.6%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
50.1%norm 45.0%
49.0%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
62.1%norm 54.85%
80.41/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
81.15/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Charles Oliveira

Distance 69.9% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 13.5% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 16.6% (norm 8.0%)

Ilia Topuria

Distance 84.3% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 4.5% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 11.2% (norm 6.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Charles Oliveira

Head 68.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 20.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.3% (norm 7.9%)

Ilia Topuria

Head 78.3% (norm 77.4%) · Body 15.1% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.6% (norm 7.8%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Oliveira L/AAccLightweight med Topuria L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 560 / 1199 46.7% 37.9% 387 / 845 45.8% 40.9%
In the clinch 173 / 231 74.9% 67.3% 34 / 45 75.6% 70.8%
On the ground 221 / 285 77.5% 69.1% 81 / 112 72.3% 69.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 565 / 1182 47.8% 35.0% 343 / 785 43.7% 37.2%
To the body 246 / 357 68.9% 69.1% 106 / 151 70.2% 68.2%
To the legs 143 / 176 81.2% 81.9% 53 / 66 80.3% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Featherweight: 126 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Oliveira L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Topuria L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 615 / 1341 45.9% 38.9% 383 / 1046 36.6% 39.2%
In the clinch 72 / 105 68.6% 68.6% 24 / 34 70.6% 70.3%
On the ground 213 / 317 67.2% 68.0% 7 / 11 too few to rate 69.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 658 / 1421 46.3% 35.1% 257 / 841 30.6% 35.9%
To the body 168 / 240 70.0% 68.1% 85 / 167 50.9% 67.9%
To the legs 74 / 102 72.5% 81.5% 72 / 83 86.7% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

4539.8% acc · 2.29/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1257.1% acc · 1.73/15 · norm 1.19
2854.9% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
2095.2% def · norm 61.5%
102:0334.6% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
21:2020.5% of cage time · norm 16.7%
83:194:14 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
6:330:56 per 15 · norm 3:12
512.59/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
60.86/15 · norm 0.46

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Oliveira has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.