BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Carmelo Marrero vs.
Wilson Gouveia

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

1-3-0 Carmelo Marrero · UFC
6-4-0 Wilson Gouveia · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

1-3-0
UFC record
6-4-0
Light Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Light Heavyweight
45.5
AgeΔ 2.3 yrs
47.8
6'0"
HeightΔ 1"
6'1"
73"
ReachΔ 3"
76"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
208.1
Layoff (months)Δ 8.3 mo
199.8
LLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Wilson Gouveia is a submission threat — 2.25 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.27 Light Heavyweight norm.
Carmelo Marrero hunts takedowns — 2.47 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.87 Light Heavyweight norm.
Wilson Gouveia carries real power — 0.90 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.40 Light Heavyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Carmelo Marrero

Full career not yet synced for Carmelo Marrero — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.5 wins over .500

Wilson Gouveia

Full career not yet synced for Wilson Gouveia — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 2-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

270.74/min · norm 3.41
Sig. strikes landed
2013.02/min · norm 3.41
641.76/min · norm 3.35
Sig. strikes absorbed
2704.06/min · norm 3.35
32.5%norm 48.3%
Striking accuracy
40.0%norm 48.3%
54.0%norm 52.9%
Striking defense
56.5%norm 52.9%
00.00/15 · norm 0.40
Knockdowns
40.90/15 · norm 0.40

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Carmelo Marrero

Distance 55.4% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 6.0% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 38.6% (norm 10.4%)

Wilson Gouveia

Distance 80.7% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 6.0% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 13.3% (norm 10.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Carmelo Marrero

Head 77.1% (norm 79.2%) · Body 16.9% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 6.0% (norm 9.7%)

Wilson Gouveia

Head 83.7% (norm 79.2%) · Body 1.8% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 14.5% (norm 9.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Marrero L/AAccLight Heavyweight med Gouveia L/AAccLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 9 / 46 19.6% 41.4% 148 / 406 36.5% 41.4%
In the clinch 0 / 5 too few to rate 70.9% 15 / 30 50.0% 70.9%
On the ground 18 / 32 56.2% 72.3% 38 / 67 56.7% 72.3%
BY TARGET
To the head 13 / 64 20.3% 38.9% 134 / 421 31.8% 38.9%
To the body 10 / 14 too few to rate 71.9% 8 / 9 too few to rate 71.9%
To the legs 4 / 5 too few to rate 81.8% 59 / 73 80.8% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Marrero L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med vs Gouveia L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 35 / 90 38.9% 40.4% 166 / 424 39.2% 40.4%
In the clinch 9 / 15 too few to rate 68.7% 27 / 45 60.0% 68.7%
On the ground 20 / 34 58.8% 70.4% 77 / 152 50.7% 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 36 / 100 36.0% 37.5% 172 / 507 33.9% 37.5%
To the body 5 / 8 too few to rate 72.3% 39 / 47 83.0% 72.3%
To the legs 23 / 31 74.2% 83.0% 59 / 67 88.1% 83.0%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

640.0% acc · 2.47/15 · norm 0.87
Takedowns landed
466.7% acc · 0.90/15 · norm 0.87
440.0% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
1157.9% def · norm 66.7%
10:0427.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
7:5111.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
16:256:45 per 15 · norm 2:48
Time under control
15:223:27 per 15 · norm 2:48
00.00/15 · norm 0.27
Submission attempts
102.25/15 · norm 0.27

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Gouveia has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.