BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Carmelo Marrero vs.
Gabriel Gonzaga

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

1-3-0 Carmelo Marrero · UFC
12-10-0 Gabriel Gonzaga · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

1-3-0
UFC record
12-10-0
Light Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Heavyweight
45.5
AgeΔ 1.7 yrs
47.2
6'0"
HeightΔ 2"
6'2"
73"
ReachΔ 3"
76"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
208.1
Layoff (months)Δ 84.2 mo
123.9
LLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Gabriel Gonzaga is a submission threat — 1.20 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.16 Heavyweight norm.
Carmelo Marrero hunts takedowns — 2.47 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.87 Light Heavyweight norm.
Gabriel Gonzaga hunts takedowns — 2.62 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.95 Heavyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Carmelo Marrero

Full career not yet synced for Carmelo Marrero — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.5 wins over .500

Gabriel Gonzaga

Full career not yet synced for Gabriel Gonzaga — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 4-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.1 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

270.74/min · norm 3.41
Sig. strikes landed
2932.13/min · norm 3.36
641.76/min · norm 3.35
Sig. strikes absorbed
3712.70/min · norm 3.19
32.5%norm 48.3%
Striking accuracy
45.1%norm 47.8%
54.0%norm 52.9%
Striking defense
59.1%norm 52.5%
00.00/15 · norm 0.40
Knockdowns
70.76/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Carmelo Marrero

Distance 55.4% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 6.0% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 38.6% (norm 10.4%)

Gabriel Gonzaga

Distance 67.7% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 9.8% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 22.5% (norm 9.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Carmelo Marrero

Head 77.1% (norm 79.2%) · Body 16.9% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 6.0% (norm 9.7%)

Gabriel Gonzaga

Head 78.0% (norm 79.2%) · Body 9.2% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 12.8% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Marrero L/AAccLight Heavyweight med Gonzaga L/AAccHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 9 / 46 19.6% 41.4% 156 / 440 35.5% 40.1%
In the clinch 0 / 5 too few to rate 70.9% 43 / 64 67.2% 70.6%
On the ground 18 / 32 56.2% 72.3% 94 / 146 64.4% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 13 / 64 20.3% 38.9% 186 / 507 36.7% 38.9%
To the body 10 / 14 too few to rate 71.9% 42 / 60 70.0% 76.8%
To the legs 4 / 5 too few to rate 81.8% 65 / 83 78.3% 87.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Marrero L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med vs Gonzaga L/AOpp accHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 35 / 90 38.9% 40.4% 189 / 643 29.4% 40.7%
In the clinch 9 / 15 too few to rate 68.7% 92 / 130 70.8% 70.6%
On the ground 20 / 34 58.8% 70.4% 90 / 133 67.7% 72.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 36 / 100 36.0% 37.5% 310 / 820 37.8% 38.8%
To the body 5 / 8 too few to rate 72.3% 33 / 50 66.0% 75.1%
To the legs 23 / 31 74.2% 83.0% 28 / 36 77.8% 84.4%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

640.0% acc · 2.47/15 · norm 0.87
Takedowns landed
2438.1% acc · 2.62/15 · norm 0.95
440.0% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
1275.0% def · norm 64.3%
10:0427.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
37:1027.0% of cage time · norm 17.2%
16:256:45 per 15 · norm 2:48
Time under control
16:541:50 per 15 · norm 2:28
00.00/15 · norm 0.27
Submission attempts
111.20/15 · norm 0.16

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Gonzaga has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.