BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Carla Esparza vs.
Alexa Grasso

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

10-6-0 Carla Esparza · UFC
9-5-1 Alexa Grasso · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

10-6-0
UFC record
9-5-1
Women's Strawweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Flyweight
38.8
AgeΔ 5.8 yrs
33
5'1"
HeightΔ 4"
5'5"
63"
ReachΔ 3"
66"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
22
Layoff (months)Δ 17.7 mo
4.3
LLWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLDW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Carla Esparza hunts takedowns — 3.28 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.10 Women's Strawweight norm.
Alexa Grasso is a submission threat — 0.67 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Women's Flyweight norm.
Alexa Grasso rarely shoots — 0.40 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.02 Women's Flyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Carla Esparza

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 108
Tier 3 — regional circuit 90

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.0 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 8-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.1 wins over .500

Alexa Grasso

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 95
Tier 3 — regional circuit 70

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.2 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 22 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.5 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4922.19/min · norm 3.77
Sig. strikes landed
9214.11/min · norm 3.91
6442.87/min · norm 3.94
Sig. strikes absorbed
8313.71/min · norm 3.81
39.5%norm 44.5%
Striking accuracy
41.1%norm 44.9%
54.4%norm 54.4%
Striking defense
58.7%norm 55.95%
00.00/15 · norm 0.00
Knockdowns
20.13/15 · norm 0.09

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Carla Esparza

Distance 75.0% (norm 86.9%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 7.7%) · Ground 16.5% (norm 5.0%)

Alexa Grasso

Distance 89.7% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 1.7% (norm 4.9%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Carla Esparza

Head 86.0% (norm 76.4%) · Body 8.1% (norm 14.9%) · Legs 5.9% (norm 9.1%)

Alexa Grasso

Head 76.6% (norm 78.1%) · Body 11.8% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 11.6% (norm 7.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Esparza L/AAccWomen's Strawweight med Grasso L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 280 / 935 29.9% 38.3% 750 / 2010 37.3% 39.9%
In the clinch 63 / 106 59.4% 72.6% 142 / 191 74.3% 73.3%
On the ground 149 / 206 72.3% 75.0% 29 / 39 74.4% 74.7%
BY TARGET
To the head 363 / 1072 33.9% 35.4% 570 / 1716 33.2% 34.9%
To the body 71 / 101 70.3% 69.3% 174 / 264 65.9% 69.5%
To the legs 58 / 74 78.4% 77.9% 177 / 260 68.1% 82.6%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Strawweight: 63 fighters · Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Esparza L/AOpp accWomen's Strawweight med vs Grasso L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 409 / 1103 37.1% 39.7% 709 / 1838 38.6% 38.8%
In the clinch 53 / 87 60.9% 71.5% 76 / 114 66.7% 74.1%
On the ground 182 / 222 82.0% 74.4% 46 / 61 75.4% 73.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 473 / 1195 39.6% 36.0% 598 / 1692 35.3% 35.3%
To the body 90 / 119 75.6% 68.4% 145 / 210 69.0% 69.0%
To the legs 81 / 98 82.7% 79.1% 88 / 111 79.3% 78.7%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

4936.3% acc · 3.28/15 · norm 1.10
Takedowns landed
635.3% acc · 0.40/15 · norm 1.02
1747.2% def · norm 64.1%
Takedowns stopped
4054.8% def · norm 58.95%
63:2828.3% of cage time · norm 19.4%
Control time
21:159.5% of cage time · norm 19.15%
32:352:10 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control
54:073:37 per 15 · norm 3:03
40.27/15 · norm 0.29
Submission attempts
100.67/15 · norm 0.32

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Esparza has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.