BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Caio Borralho vs.
Paul Craig

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

8-1-0 Caio Borralho · UFC
9-10-1 (1 NC) Paul Craig · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

8-1-0
UFC record
9-10-1 (1 NC)
Middleweight
Division (benchmark)
Light Heavyweight
33
AgeΔ 5 yrs
38
6'1"
HeightΔ 2"
6'3"
75"
ReachΔ 1"
76"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5
Layoff (months)Δ 6 mo
11
WLWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LNCLLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Paul Craig is a submission threat — 1.34 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.27 Light Heavyweight norm.
Paul Craig hunts takedowns — 1.43 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.87 Light Heavyweight norm.
Caio Borralho owns the mat — in control 27% of cage time, vs a 20% Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Caio Borralho

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 101
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.59 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Paul Craig

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 910
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.89 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 17 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.5 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4593.30/min · norm 3.25
Sig. strikes landed
4212.50/min · norm 3.41
3662.63/min · norm 3.20
Sig. strikes absorbed
5113.04/min · norm 3.35
55.1%norm 47.4%
Striking accuracy
45.4%norm 48.3%
59.8%norm 53.8%
Striking defense
43.4%norm 52.9%
30.32/15 · norm 0.32
Knockdowns
10.09/15 · norm 0.40

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Caio Borralho

Distance 88.6% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 2.5% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 8.9% (norm 10.3%)

Paul Craig

Distance 78.4% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 8.6% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 12.9% (norm 10.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Caio Borralho

Head 71.4% (norm 78.0%) · Body 17.5% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 11.0% (norm 8.4%)

Paul Craig

Head 68.3% (norm 79.2%) · Body 21.8% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 9.9% (norm 9.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Borralho L/AAccMiddleweight med Craig L/AAccLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 378 / 738 51.2% 40.5% 283 / 728 38.9% 41.4%
In the clinch 17 / 21 too few to rate 70.3% 57 / 80 71.2% 70.9%
On the ground 64 / 74 86.5% 69.1% 81 / 120 67.5% 72.3%
BY TARGET
To the head 298 / 595 50.1% 38.9% 211 / 634 33.3% 38.9%
To the body 84 / 146 57.5% 71.7% 133 / 202 65.8% 71.9%
To the legs 77 / 92 83.7% 83.3% 77 / 92 83.7% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Borralho L/AOpp accMiddleweight med vs Craig L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 331 / 861 38.4% 39.5% 281 / 584 48.1% 40.4%
In the clinch 11 / 12 too few to rate 70.9% 49 / 60 81.7% 68.7%
On the ground 24 / 38 63.2% 69.0% 181 / 259 69.9% 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 201 / 653 30.8% 37.9% 353 / 713 49.5% 37.5%
To the body 89 / 156 57.1% 71.3% 78 / 97 80.4% 72.3%
To the legs 76 / 102 74.5% 82.1% 80 / 93 86.0% 83.0%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1045.5% acc · 1.08/15 · norm 1.42
Takedowns landed
1618.8% acc · 1.43/15 · norm 0.87
1473.7% def · norm 63.1%
Takedowns stopped
635.3% def · norm 66.7%
37:1826.9% of cage time · norm 19.75%
Control time
22:4913.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
10:231:07 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control
62:195:33 per 15 · norm 2:48
40.43/15 · norm 0.47
Submission attempts
151.34/15 · norm 0.27

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Craig has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.