BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Brock Larson vs.
Keita Nakamura

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

3-3-0 Brock Larson · UFC
4-7-0 Keita Nakamura · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

3-3-0
UFC record
4-7-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
49
AgeΔ 6.8 yrs
42.2
5'11"
HeightΔ 0"
5'11"
71"
ReachΔ 2"
73"
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
200.5
Layoff (months)Δ 113 mo
87.5
LLWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Brock Larson is a submission threat — 1.79 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Brock Larson hunts takedowns — 2.31 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Keita Nakamura hunts takedowns — 1.72 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Brock Larson

Full career not yet synced for Brock Larson — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.2 wins over .500

Keita Nakamura

Full career not yet synced for Keita Nakamura — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 3-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.4 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

701.20/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
3372.14/min · norm 3.17
971.66/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
5243.33/min · norm 3.06
46.1%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
35.7%norm 44.9%
55.3%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
57.6%norm 55.25%
00.00/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
40.38/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Brock Larson

Distance 47.4% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 27.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 25.7% (norm 8.1%)

Keita Nakamura

Distance 88.3% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 5.9% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.7% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Brock Larson

Head 82.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.2% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 7.9% (norm 8.4%)

Keita Nakamura

Head 87.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.4% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 3.7% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Larson L/AAccWelterweight med Nakamura L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 20 / 72 27.8% 38.6% 267 / 834 32.0% 38.6%
In the clinch 25 / 41 61.0% 67.8% 37 / 56 66.1% 67.8%
On the ground 25 / 39 64.1% 67.2% 33 / 54 61.1% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 48 / 126 38.1% 37.2% 267 / 830 32.2% 37.2%
To the body 11 / 14 too few to rate 70.7% 49 / 79 62.0% 70.7%
To the legs 11 / 12 too few to rate 82.9% 21 / 35 60.0% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Larson L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Nakamura L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 26 / 97 26.8% 39.0% 379 / 994 38.1% 39.0%
In the clinch 18 / 34 52.9% 68.9% 76 / 114 66.7% 68.9%
On the ground 53 / 86 61.6% 68.0% 69 / 129 53.5% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 57 / 166 34.3% 35.6% 346 / 1016 34.1% 35.6%
To the body 19 / 25 76.0% 69.6% 104 / 141 73.8% 69.6%
To the legs 21 / 26 80.8% 82.1% 74 / 80 92.5% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

930.0% acc · 2.31/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
1851.4% acc · 1.72/15 · norm 1.27
1043.5% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
2363.9% def · norm 63.9%
18:2031.3% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
23:4415.1% of cage time · norm 18.5%
24:536:22 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
33:303:11 per 15 · norm 3:15
71.79/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
40.38/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nakamura has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.