Brendan Allen vs.
Paul Craig
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Brendan Allen
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 16 | 4 |
| Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) | 6 | 3 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 5 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.61 · 22 tier-1/2 wins · 20 finish wins over 34 documented bouts
In the UFC: 13-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.8 wins over .500
Paul Craig
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 9 | 10 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 8 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.89 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 17 finish wins over 29 documented bouts
In the UFC: 5-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.5 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Brendan Allen
Distance 83.3% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 5.4% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 11.3% (norm 10.3%)
Paul Craig
Distance 78.4% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 8.6% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 12.9% (norm 10.4%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Brendan Allen
Head 79.0% (norm 78.0%) · Body 13.5% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 7.5% (norm 8.4%)
Paul Craig
Head 68.3% (norm 79.2%) · Body 21.8% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 9.9% (norm 9.7%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Allen L/A | Acc | Middleweight med | Craig L/A | Acc | Light Heavyweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 650 / 1328 | 48.9% | 40.5% | 283 / 728 | 38.9% | 41.4% |
| In the clinch | 56 / 86 | 65.1% | 70.3% | 57 / 80 | 71.2% | 70.9% |
| On the ground | 128 / 181 | 70.7% | 69.1% | 81 / 120 | 67.5% | 72.3% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 549 / 1260 | 43.6% | 38.9% | 211 / 634 | 33.3% | 38.9% |
| To the body | 172 / 215 | 80.0% | 71.7% | 133 / 202 | 65.8% | 71.9% |
| To the legs | 113 / 120 | 94.2% | 83.3% | 77 / 92 | 83.7% | 81.8% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Allen L/A | Opp acc | Middleweight med | vs Craig L/A | Opp acc | Light Heavyweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 718 / 1449 | 49.6% | 39.5% | 281 / 584 | 48.1% | 40.4% |
| In the clinch | 48 / 66 | 72.7% | 70.9% | 49 / 60 | 81.7% | 68.7% |
| On the ground | 69 / 97 | 71.1% | 69.0% | 181 / 259 | 69.9% | 70.4% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 681 / 1410 | 48.3% | 37.9% | 353 / 713 | 49.5% | 37.5% |
| To the body | 112 / 151 | 74.2% | 71.3% | 78 / 97 | 80.4% | 72.3% |
| To the legs | 42 / 51 | 82.4% | 82.1% | 80 / 93 | 86.0% | 83.0% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Craig has more cage time on record.