BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Brad Tavares vs.
Seth Baczynski

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

16-12-0 Brad Tavares · UFC
5-6-0 Seth Baczynski · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

16-12-0
UFC record
5-6-0
Middleweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
38.6
AgeΔ 6.2 yrs
44.8
6'1"
HeightΔ 2"
6'3"
74"
ReachΔ 1"
75"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
4.8
Layoff (months)Δ 131 mo
135.8
LLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Seth Baczynski is a submission threat — 0.75 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Brad Tavares rarely shoots — 0.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.42 Middleweight norm.
Seth Baczynski is wasteful with strikes at range — only 26% land, vs a 39% Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Brad Tavares

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1612
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.94 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 7 finish wins over 33 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500

Seth Baczynski

Full career not yet synced for Seth Baczynski — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 4-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.1 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

12433.41/min · norm 3.25
Sig. strikes landed
3103.08/min · norm 3.17
12093.32/min · norm 3.20
Sig. strikes absorbed
3163.14/min · norm 3.06
43.7%norm 47.4%
Striking accuracy
31.6%norm 44.9%
54.9%norm 53.8%
Striking defense
51.4%norm 55.25%
50.21/15 · norm 0.32
Knockdowns
20.30/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Brad Tavares

Distance 89.6% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 8.1% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 2.3% (norm 10.3%)

Seth Baczynski

Distance 82.3% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 11.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 6.7% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Brad Tavares

Head 76.3% (norm 78.0%) · Body 11.5% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 12.2% (norm 8.4%)

Seth Baczynski

Head 82.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 4.8% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Tavares L/AAccMiddleweight med Baczynski L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1049 / 2548 41.2% 40.5% 209 / 808 25.9% 38.6%
In the clinch 150 / 231 64.9% 70.3% 65 / 108 60.2% 67.8%
On the ground 44 / 65 67.7% 69.1% 36 / 66 54.5% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 738 / 2171 34.0% 38.9% 206 / 814 25.3% 37.2%
To the body 213 / 327 65.1% 71.7% 70 / 121 57.9% 70.7%
To the legs 292 / 346 84.4% 83.3% 34 / 47 72.3% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Tavares L/AOpp accMiddleweight med vs Baczynski L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 940 / 2281 41.2% 39.5% 209 / 495 42.2% 39.0%
In the clinch 201 / 317 63.4% 70.9% 67 / 94 71.3% 68.9%
On the ground 68 / 84 81.0% 69.0% 40 / 61 65.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 769 / 2047 37.6% 37.9% 150 / 455 33.0% 35.6%
To the body 190 / 305 62.3% 71.3% 81 / 93 87.1% 69.6%
To the legs 250 / 330 75.8% 82.1% 85 / 102 83.3% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1726.6% acc · 0.70/15 · norm 1.42
Takedowns landed
616.7% acc · 0.89/15 · norm 1.27
11480.3% def · norm 63.1%
Takedowns stopped
1548.4% def · norm 63.9%
46:3812.8% of cage time · norm 19.75%
Control time
21:1321.1% of cage time · norm 18.5%
80:143:18 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control
33:264:59 per 15 · norm 3:15
00.00/15 · norm 0.47
Submission attempts
50.75/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Tavares has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.