Andre Winner vs.
Rafaello Oliveira
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Andre Winner
Full career not yet synced for Andre Winner — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500
Rafaello Oliveira
Full career not yet synced for Rafaello Oliveira — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 0-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.1 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Andre Winner
Distance 81.4% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 17.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 0.8% (norm 8.0%)
Rafaello Oliveira
Distance 81.2% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 11.0% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Andre Winner
Head 73.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 16.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.1% (norm 7.9%)
Rafaello Oliveira
Head 78.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.7% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Winner L/A | Acc | Lightweight med | Oliveira L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 91 / 411 | 22.1% | 37.9% | 130 / 450 | 28.9% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 75 / 90 | 83.3% | 67.3% | 16 / 43 | 37.2% | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 3 / 4 | too few to rate | 69.1% | 39 / 61 | 63.9% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 82 / 369 | 22.2% | 35.0% | 110 / 433 | 25.4% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 50 / 85 | 58.8% | 69.1% | 38 / 67 | 56.7% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 37 / 51 | 72.5% | 81.9% | 37 / 54 | 68.5% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Winner L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med | vs Oliveira L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 183 / 450 | 40.7% | 38.9% | 188 / 569 | 33.0% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 116 / 174 | 66.7% | 68.6% | 40 / 56 | 71.4% | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 7 / 10 | too few to rate | 68.0% | 57 / 76 | 75.0% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 156 / 438 | 35.6% | 35.1% | 157 / 530 | 29.6% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 83 / 111 | 74.8% | 68.1% | 74 / 103 | 71.8% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 67 / 85 | 78.8% | 81.5% | 54 / 68 | 79.4% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Oliveira has more cage time on record.