BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Alexander Hernandez vs.
Drew Dober

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

10-8-0 Alexander Hernandez · UFC
15-11-0 (1 NC) Drew Dober · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

10-8-0
UFC record
15-11-0 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
33.8
AgeΔ 4 yrs
37.8
5'9"
HeightΔ 1"
5'8"
72"
ReachΔ 2"
70"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
3.4
Layoff (months)Δ 1.6 mo
5
LWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Drew Dober carries real power — 0.68 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Alexander Hernandez carries real power — 0.48 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Drew Dober rarely shoots — 0.61 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Alexander Hernandez

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 108
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 20
Tier 3 — regional circuit 61

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.04 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.2 wins over .500

Drew Dober

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1611
Tier 3 — regional circuit 134

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.97 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 45 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

7894.23/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
9944.48/min · norm 3.42
8314.45/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
9604.33/min · norm 3.37
40.4%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
41.0%norm 43.5%
59.7%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
53.1%norm 56.3%
60.48/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
100.68/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alexander Hernandez

Distance 91.2% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 4.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.2% (norm 8.0%)

Drew Dober

Distance 87.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 5.2% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alexander Hernandez

Head 72.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 20.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.7% (norm 7.9%)

Drew Dober

Head 79.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.2% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Hernandez L/AAccLightweight med Dober L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 670 / 1779 37.7% 37.9% 790 / 2128 37.1% 37.9%
In the clinch 61 / 91 67.0% 67.3% 111 / 170 65.3% 67.3%
On the ground 58 / 81 71.6% 69.1% 93 / 125 74.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 438 / 1408 31.1% 35.0% 628 / 1922 32.7% 35.0%
To the body 245 / 392 62.5% 69.1% 225 / 326 69.0% 69.1%
To the legs 106 / 151 70.2% 81.9% 141 / 175 80.6% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Hernandez L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Dober L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 712 / 1894 37.6% 38.9% 771 / 1793 43.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 86 / 124 69.4% 68.6% 87 / 121 71.9% 68.6%
On the ground 33 / 45 73.3% 68.0% 102 / 132 77.3% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 495 / 1578 31.4% 35.1% 681 / 1668 40.8% 35.1%
To the body 197 / 314 62.7% 68.1% 197 / 279 70.6% 68.1%
To the legs 139 / 171 81.3% 81.5% 82 / 99 82.8% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1335.1% acc · 1.05/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
917.0% acc · 0.61/15 · norm 1.38
3368.8% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
3958.2% def · norm 64.0%
24:0812.9% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
29:1913.2% of cage time · norm 19.5%
17:121:22 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
49:013:18 per 15 · norm 2:46
10.08/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
10.07/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dober has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.