BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Alex Karalexis vs.
Josh Rafferty

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

1-2-0 Alex Karalexis · UFC
0-1-0 Josh Rafferty · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

1-2-0
UFC record
0-1-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
48.9
AgeΔ 3.3 yrs
45.6
5'8"
HeightΔ 4"
6'0"
66"
Reach
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
246.6
Layoff (months)Δ 9.2 mo
255.8
LLW
Last 5 (newest first)
L
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Josh Rafferty is a submission threat — 9.00 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Alex Karalexis is a submission threat — 2.16 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Josh Rafferty rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Alex Karalexis

Full career not yet synced for Alex Karalexis — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.3 wins over .500

Josh Rafferty

Full career not yet synced for Josh Rafferty — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

422.02/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
10.60/min · norm 3.17
673.22/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
63.60/min · norm 3.06
30.4%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
33.3%norm 44.9%
51.8%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
50.0%norm 55.25%
00.00/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alex Karalexis

Distance 55.1% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 36.2% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 8.7% (norm 8.1%)

Josh Rafferty

Distance 100.0% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 0.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alex Karalexis

Head 92.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 6.5% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 1.4% (norm 8.4%)

Josh Rafferty

Head 33.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 33.3% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 33.3% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Karalexis L/AAccWelterweight med Rafferty L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 11 / 76 14.5% 38.6% 1 / 3 too few to rate 38.6%
In the clinch 22 / 50 44.0% 67.8% 0 / 0 too few to rate 67.8%
On the ground 9 / 12 too few to rate 67.2% 0 / 0 too few to rate 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 35 / 127 27.6% 37.2% 0 / 1 too few to rate 37.2%
To the body 5 / 9 too few to rate 70.7% 1 / 1 too few to rate 70.7%
To the legs 2 / 2 too few to rate 82.9% 0 / 1 too few to rate 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Karalexis L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Rafferty L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 32 / 82 39.0% 39.0% 0 / 4 too few to rate 39.0%
In the clinch 35 / 57 61.4% 68.9% 0 / 0 too few to rate 68.9%
On the ground 0 / 0 too few to rate 68.0% 6 / 8 too few to rate 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 36 / 95 37.9% 35.6% 6 / 12 too few to rate 35.6%
To the body 30 / 42 71.4% 69.6% 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.6%
To the legs 1 / 2 too few to rate 82.1% 0 / 0 too few to rate 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

120.0% acc · 0.72/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.27
480.0% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
0— def · norm 63.9%
4:2120.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
0:000.0% of cage time · norm 18.5%
4:002:52 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
1:039:27 per 15 · norm 3:15
32.16/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
19.00/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Karalexis has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.