BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Aleksandar Rakic vs.
Thiago Santos

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

7-5-0 Aleksandar Rakic · UFC
14-10-0 Thiago Santos · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

7-5-0
UFC record
14-10-0
Light Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
34.5
AgeΔ 8.1 yrs
42.6
6'4"
HeightΔ 2"
6'2"
78"
ReachΔ 2"
76"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
0.2
Layoff (months)Δ 47.8 mo
48
WLLLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Thiago Santos carries real power — 0.88 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Middleweight norm.
Aleksandar Rakic owns the mat — in control 30% of cage time, vs a 16% Light Heavyweight norm.
Thiago Santos rarely shoots — 0.88 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.42 Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Aleksandar Rakic

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 75
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.99 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.5 wins over .500

Thiago Santos

Full career not yet synced for Thiago Santos — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 11-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.6 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

5564.20/min · norm 3.41
Sig. strikes landed
8883.72/min · norm 3.25
3692.78/min · norm 3.35
Sig. strikes absorbed
6142.57/min · norm 3.20
50.5%norm 48.3%
Striking accuracy
48.2%norm 47.4%
54.8%norm 52.9%
Striking defense
53.9%norm 53.8%
40.45/15 · norm 0.40
Knockdowns
140.88/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Aleksandar Rakic

Distance 80.5% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 5.8% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 13.6% (norm 10.4%)

Thiago Santos

Distance 69.7% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 9.8% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 20.5% (norm 10.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Aleksandar Rakic

Head 67.7% (norm 79.2%) · Body 12.2% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 20.1% (norm 9.7%)

Thiago Santos

Head 65.9% (norm 78.0%) · Body 16.8% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 17.3% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Rakic L/AAccLight Heavyweight med Santos L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 389 / 886 43.9% 41.4% 512 / 1285 39.8% 40.5%
In the clinch 52 / 64 81.2% 70.9% 150 / 181 82.9% 70.3%
On the ground 115 / 150 76.7% 72.3% 226 / 378 59.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 282 / 745 37.9% 38.9% 455 / 1216 37.4% 38.9%
To the body 103 / 134 76.9% 71.9% 204 / 309 66.0% 71.7%
To the legs 171 / 221 77.4% 81.8% 229 / 319 71.8% 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Rakic L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med vs Santos L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 284 / 704 40.3% 40.4% 417 / 1085 38.4% 39.5%
In the clinch 56 / 73 76.7% 68.7% 87 / 110 79.1% 70.9%
On the ground 29 / 40 72.5% 70.4% 110 / 138 79.7% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 188 / 557 33.8% 37.5% 330 / 914 36.1% 37.9%
To the body 83 / 145 57.2% 72.3% 141 / 215 65.6% 71.3%
To the legs 98 / 115 85.2% 83.0% 143 / 204 70.1% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

521.7% acc · 0.57/15 · norm 0.87
Takedowns landed
1433.3% acc · 0.88/15 · norm 1.42
2087.0% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
3865.5% def · norm 63.1%
40:2730.5% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
31:3813.2% of cage time · norm 19.75%
5:450:39 per 15 · norm 2:48
Time under control
39:232:28 per 15 · norm 3:00
10.11/15 · norm 0.27
Submission attempts
10.06/15 · norm 0.47

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Santos has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.