Tai Tuivasa

Picked against as an explicit stay-away, total-pass fight -- the analyst says the outcome mostly depends on the opponent's own game-plan discipline.

A fairly capable striker with real power, a heavy leg kick, and a chin that's held up well over time. His recent form has been poor, and even his best showing in that stretch was still technically a defeat -- one in which he had a brief spell of success before it slipped away. His clinch game holds up, too -- he can turn a cage push around on an opponent, and once he's got someone against the fence his elbows are heavy enough to be a genuine finishing threat. He tends to come out hot, hunting an early stoppage; if that doesn't materialize, the fight tends to swing away from him as the rounds go on.

He admits Gane wins this matchup on skill nine times out of ten, and picks Tuivasa mainly on a hunch about a clinch-and-fade path to a finish, explicitly calling his own confidence low.

Tuivasa brings legitimate knockout power and a chin that's absorbed some of the division's hardest punchers without cracking, including surviving an early storm before finishing that same opponent. His most underrated tool is a dangerous clinch game, complete with damaging elbows once he creates separation. The path to victory is narrow — closing distance on a far superior range striker — but the analyst thinks his power and durability give him a live chance if he can force the fight into the clinch.