Sofia Montenegro

He calls the pick a genuine toss-up in his own words and repeatedly admits he might have the wrong read on who's landing cleaner, so this plays more like a coinflip than a real lean.

Montenegro is a pressure-first boxer who marches forward behind a one-two, keeps her chin tucked and hands high, and really opens up once she has an opponent pinned to the fence. The analyst goes back and forth on her ground game, starting at 'good' before talking himself down to 'decent,' though he credits her with well-timed takedown entries and a slick heel hook finish that impressed him even against overmatched regional competition. He also mentions she has handled bigger opposition before, which speaks to her physicality moving into this matchup. In the striking exchange itself, he suspects she may carry the heavier hands of the two fighters, even though he ultimately favors her opponent's precision over her power.

Favors the more well-rounded, higher-output striker to control the pace over three rounds.

Montenegro's approach is straightforward: come forward behind a steady one-two, then open up with fuller combinations once she has an opponent backed against the cage. It's a simple, effective style, though a fairly predictable, linear one. Her grappling is largely unproven, and while she's shown flashes of good timing on takedowns, her clearest route to winning — using the cage and takedowns to control the pace for three rounds — is seen as a tough ask against a more well-rounded opponent.