Marcus Buchecha

Picked with an explicit two-phase framing -- the analyst expects him to survive real early danger before his grappling takes over and wins the fight.

Underappreciated by most, and it's not hard to see why -- his hands are a genuine liability, with even calling them 'decent' a stretch, though his kicking game has some real quality to it. He's tough enough to eat clean shots, which will matter since he's likely to face pressure early in this one. The threat of a takedown occasionally opens up his otherwise thin striking, but the real value here is a genuinely excellent grappling game: a dependable double-leg that he commits to over and over instead of giving up on it after a couple of stuffed attempts, strong top control, steady work moving into better position, punishing ground strikes, smooth transitions, and a submission arsenal that runs deep.