Macy Chiasson

Backs the higher-output grappler over a bad style and location matchup, expecting the weight cut to sap the favorite's engine.

Chiasson is the cleaner technical striker at range, using her jab and distance well, and she pairs it with strong cage control, a nasty ground-and-pound game, and functional takedowns of her own. The concerns are recent and specific: her output has noticeably dropped in her last several outings, likely tied to a demanding weight cut down from featherweight, and this fight adds the extra burden of an unfamiliar location. Between the cut, the dip in volume, and a tough stylistic matchup, she's picked to come up short despite being the more accomplished pure striker.

He calls this one of his least confident picks on the card, leaning toward Aldana on footwork and power rather than a clear stylistic mismatch.

Macy Chiasson is the taller, longer fighter here, and her clearest path to victory is working the clinch — pinning her opponent against the cage and doing damage with elbows as she separates. The analyst's hesitation about picking her comes down to a conditioning concern heading into fight week, which weighs against her physical tools. If she can impose the clinch game early and often she has a real route to the win, but that wasn't enough to earn the actual pick.